The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the upcoming quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope and longevity. The Survey has been running since 1962 and is one of the most trusted indicators of labor market trends in the world.

All the data in the survey is based on the answer to one question: How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the coming three months as compared to the current quarter?
In addition to the main employment question, the survey asks up to six additional questions which change quarterly. These questions reflect changing economic or workforce dynamics and trends. Topic areas range from talent shortage to workforce training and development to employee sentiments and well-being.

The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. A positive Net Employment Outlook figure means that, on balance, there are more employers who expect to add to their headcount in the following three months than those who intend to reduce staff.

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey only measures if employers expect to hire or not and does not provide information about specific job changes. The Survey is a forecast, not a commitment, based on informed opinions from employers and hiring managers on what will likely happen in their organization in the following quarter.

The Q1 2023 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with 3030 public and private employers in 12 cities and provinces in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), and worldwide, the sample covers more than 38,000 employers in 41 countries and territories.

The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook is digitized across the 41 markets, beginning with the Q1 2022 report. 
Respondents in previous quarters were contacted via telephone. Data is now collected online with double opt-in member panels and they are incentivized to complete the survey.  
In line with standard findings of online surveys, more people are now taking a position – selecting that their workforce will either increase or decrease vs. no change. Because the Net Employment Outlook is based only on the people saying increase or decrease, the result of this higher level of engagement means the methodology shift may contribute to a higher Outlook. 

Employers are selected based on the types of companies and organizations they represent. We want to ensure that our panel is representative of each participating country’s national labor market, so each country’s panel is built in proportion to that country’s overall distribution of industry sectors and organization sizes. 

The person we select to interview will be someone with a good overview of staffing levels and hiring intentions within their organization. Normally this will be the head of HR or an HR manager. However, in smaller organizations, that person may be a general manager or even the CEO. 

Since Q1 2023 sectors were standardized across all markets to bring them into line with ManpowerGroup's standard verticals. They are:

Transport, Logistics & Automotive	Transportation and Storage
	Air Freight & Logistics
	Airlines
	Marine
	Road & Rail
	Transportation Infrastructure
	Auto Components
	Automobiles
Communication Services	Telecoms, Media and Communication
	Diversified Telecommunication Services
	Wireless Telecommunication Services
	Media and Publishing
	Entertainment
	Interactive Media & Services
	Other Communication Sub-Industry
Consumer Goods & Services	Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Vehicles
	Accommodation and Food Service
	Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
	Other Service Activities
	Household Durables
	Leisure Products
	Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
	Leisure Facilities, Gaming & Casinos (Gyms, Spas, etc.)
	Accommodation, Restaurants, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
	Specialized Consumer Services
	Education Services
	Distributors
	Online & Direct Marketing Retail
	Multiline Retail (Department Stores, etc.)
	Specialty Retail (Apparel, Technology, etc.)
	Other Consumer Discretionary Goods & Services Sub-Industry
	Food & Staples Retailing
	Beverages
	Food Products
	Tobacco
	Household Products
	Personal Products
	Other Consumer Staples Sub-Industry
Energy & Utilities	Energy Equipment & Services
	Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
	Electric Utilities
	Gas Utilities
	Multi-Utilities
	Water Utilities
	Waste Remediation
	Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
	Other Energy and Utilities Sub-Industry
Financials & Real Estate	Banking, Finance and Insurance
	Real Estate
	Banks
	Thrifts & Mortgage Finance
	Diversified Financial Services
	Consumer Finance
	Capital Markets
	Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
	Insurance
	Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
	Real Estate Management & Development
	Other Financials & Real Estate Sub-Industry
Health Care & Life Sciences	Human Health and Social Work
	Health Care Equipment & Supplies
	Health Care Providers & Services
	Health Care Technology
	Biotechnology
	Pharmaceuticals
	Life Sciences Tools & Services
	Other Health Care & Life Sciences Sub-Industry
Industrials & Materials	Forestry
	Mining and Quarrying; Electricity, Gas and Air Conditioning Supply; Water Supply; Sewerage, Waste Management and Remediation Activities
	Construction
	Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities
	Administrative and Support Services
	Aerospace & Defense
	Building Products
	Construction & Engineering
	Electrical Equipment
	Industrial Conglomerates
	Machinery
	Trading Companies & Distributors
	Commercial Services & Supplies
	Professional Services
	Other Industrials Sub-Industry
Information Technology	Chemicals
	Construction Materials
	Containers & Packaging
	Metals & Mining
	Paper & Forest Products
	Other Materials Sub-Industry
	Information and Technology; I.T.
	IT Services
	Software
	Communications Equipment
	Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
	Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
	Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
	Other IT Sub-Industry
Other/None of the Above	Government (National or Local) or Public Service
	Not for Profit / NGO/ Charity/ Religious organization
	Other Transport, Logistics & Automobiles Sub-Industry
	Educational Institutions
	'Agriculture & Fishing
	Other Industry (Please write in)

Reputation Leaders is our lead research partner who analyzes data for all 40 countries and territories to ensure consistency.

By their very nature, surveys are imperfect measures. All surveys have a margin of error, which is largely determined by the number of interviews completed. For the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, the minimum panel size in each country and territory is 620 to ensure a margin of error no greater than +/-3.9%. This prevents undue distortion of the data because of one respondent changing their response from one quarter to the next.

Seasonal adjustment is a statistical process that allows the Survey data to be presented without the impact of hiring fluctuations that normally occur through the course of the year, usually as a result of various external factors, such changes in weather, traditional production cycles and public holidays.
Seasonal adjustment has the effect of flattening peaks and smoothing troughs in the data to better illustrate underlying employment trends and provide a more accurate representation of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey results.

ManpowerGroup does not track retrospective hiring trends as part of the Employment Outlook Survey, only forward-looking expectations. However, we are able to see that the Survey results do align with employment trends reported by governments and other organizations quite closely and provide one of the most robust and trusted indicators of forward-looking labor market trends in the world.

There are several ways to review the results, which are reported for 40 countries and territories, and specific industries and regions within each. The current results, including the Net Employment Outlook, provides a snapshot of employers’ expectations for the coming three months. Comparing this result to the previous quarter provides a short-term perspective of hiring expectations in a particular country or sector, while comparing to the previous year gives a longer-term view on employer intentions.